21st Century Security - Updated
[Editor’s Note: Kerry on NPR Today—
John Kerry will be interviewed today from Damascus, Syria on Day to Day with Alex Chadwick on NPR. Heâll be at the top of the show â check your local NPR station listings and be sure to tune in. UPDATE: Link to Audio]
JK spoke with David Gregory on the Today show this morning (transcript | video):
GREGORY: More troops would not do enough in your estimation to shore up Baghdad and at least give the Maliki government a fighting chance?
KERRY: Not without a fundamental political resolution. I think you could put 100,000 troops and you’re going to up the casualties, up the stakes, increase the violence and not get a resolution.
The fundamental resolution that I’ve heard in every country I’ve been to
- I’ve been to Egypt -I met with President Mubarak; I’ve been to Jordan- met with King Abdullah yesterday; we’re here in Syria today; going to Israel from here; I was in Lebanon yesterday -everywhere people are saying, “You’ve got to have a comprehensive political reconciliation process.” And we’re here to explore whether that can be broader than it’s been in the past and we think it can.[...]
That is the key, not troops. More troops will not resolve the problem of Iraq. And you won’t end the violence. What’ll happen is you’ll create a larger, more prominent target in the absence of the kind of political solution that’s needed.
General Abizaid, the senior commander in the Middle East, made the same point per the New York Times today:
<!General Abizaid argues for a broader approach to Iraq than that of looking solely to putting out the fires in Baghdad.
âYou have to internationalize the problem,â General Abizaid said. âYou have to attack it diplomatically, geo-strategically. You just canât apply a microscope on a particular problem in downtown Baghdad and a particular problem in downtown Kabul and say that somehow or another, if you throw enough military forces at it, that you are going to solve the broader issues in the region of extremism.â
[...]
âI think our structures for 21st-century security challenges need to adapt to this type of an enemy,â he said. âThe 21st century really requires that we figure out how to get economic, diplomatic, political and military elements of power synchronized and coordinated against specific problems wherever they exist.â
Long before the Iraqi Study Group advocated a solution for Iraq that included negotiations with Iran and Syria, General Abizaid argued that combating Islamic extremism required a regional approach.
The Bush administration is split over the idea of a surge in troops to Iraq, with White House officials aggressively promoting the concept over the unanimous disagreement of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, according to U.S. officials familiar with the intense debate.
Sending 15,000 to 30,000 more troops for a mission of possibly six to eight months is one of the central proposals on the table of the White House policy review to reverse the steady deterioration in Iraq.
[...]
The chiefs have taken a firm stand, the sources say, because they believe the strategy review will be the most important decision on Iraq to be made since the March 2003 invasion.
At regular interagency meetings and in briefing President Bush last week, the Pentagon has warned that any short-term mission may only set up the United States for bigger problems when it ends. The service chiefs have warned that a short-term mission could give an enormous edge to virtually all the armed factions in Iraq
- including al-Qaeda’s foreign fighters, Sunni insurgents and Shiite militias -without giving an enduring boost to the U.S military mission or to the Iraqi army, the officials said.The Pentagon has cautioned that a modest surge could lead to more attacks by al-Qaeda, provide more targets for Sunni insurgents and fuel the jihadist appeal for more foreign fighters to flock to Iraq to attack U.S. troops, the officials said.
The informal but well-armed Shiite militias, the Joint Chiefs have also warned, may simply melt back into society during a U.S. surge and wait until the troops are withdrawn—then reemerge and retake the streets of Baghdad and other cities.
Even the announcement of a time frame and mission
- such as for six months to try to secure volatile Baghdad -could play to armed factions by allowing them to game out the new U.S. strategy, the chiefs have warned the White House.The idea of a much larger military deployment for a longer mission is virtually off the table, at least so far, mainly for logistics reasons, say officials familiar with the debate. Any deployment of 40,000 to 50,000 would force the Pentagon to redeploy troops who were scheduled to go home.
As JK concluded on the show:
But nothing is going to resolve Iraq without this fundamental political reconciliation. You have a divide between Sunni and Shia. And you have criminal elements. You have ex-Baathist elements. You’ve just got an enormous historical cultural problem. And the only way to overcome it is with major assistance from outside countries and from us to get that political resolution.
JK also highlighted one other crisis that merits immediate attention:
I think that—incidentally, if I can just say this to you, David, while everybody is focused on Iraq, there is a major crisis brewing that will have an impact on Iraq, on Israel and on the politics of the region in Lebanon. And Lebanon is an immediate crisis. It’s a two-week crisis, not a several-month crisis. And we think it is critical that there be greater focus.
Not up on your Lebanese politics?
Check out the New York Times and Washington Post special coverage on Lebanon.

In Lebanon, he and Sen. Dodd met with a number of Lebanese leaders. The 
Pamela Leavey at
Kerry, Dodd meet with Iraqi PM
During his stop at Camp Warhorse in Diyala, northeast of the capital, Kerry said he also met with local Iraqi officials responsible for one of the most sectarian-charged areas of the country.
JK sent out an email about weekend house-parties organized via Moveon featuring Gore’s documentary, An Inconvenient Truth.
Linda Matchan of the
which led to the Boston Tea Party.



30 comments »