21st Century Security - Updated
[Editor’s Note: Kerry on NPR Today—
John Kerry will be interviewed today from Damascus, Syria on Day to Day with Alex Chadwick on NPR. He’ll be at the top of the show – check your local NPR station listings and be sure to tune in. UPDATE: Link to Audio]
JK spoke with David Gregory on the Today show this morning (transcript | video):
GREGORY: More troops would not do enough in your estimation to shore up Baghdad and at least give the Maliki government a fighting chance?
KERRY: Not without a fundamental political resolution. I think you could put 100,000 troops and you’re going to up the casualties, up the stakes, increase the violence and not get a resolution.
The fundamental resolution that I’ve heard in every country I’ve been to
- I’ve been to Egypt -I met with President Mubarak; I’ve been to Jordan- met with King Abdullah yesterday; we’re here in Syria today; going to Israel from here; I was in Lebanon yesterday -everywhere people are saying, “You’ve got to have a comprehensive political reconciliation process.” And we’re here to explore whether that can be broader than it’s been in the past and we think it can.[...]
That is the key, not troops. More troops will not resolve the problem of Iraq. And you won’t end the violence. What’ll happen is you’ll create a larger, more prominent target in the absence of the kind of political solution that’s needed.
General Abizaid, the senior commander in the Middle East, made the same point per the New York Times today:
<!General Abizaid argues for a broader approach to Iraq than that of looking solely to putting out the fires in Baghdad.
“You have to internationalize the problem,” General Abizaid said. “You have to attack it diplomatically, geo-strategically. You just can’t apply a microscope on a particular problem in downtown Baghdad and a particular problem in downtown Kabul and say that somehow or another, if you throw enough military forces at it, that you are going to solve the broader issues in the region of extremism.”
[...]
“I think our structures for 21st-century security challenges need to adapt to this type of an enemy,” he said. “The 21st century really requires that we figure out how to get economic, diplomatic, political and military elements of power synchronized and coordinated against specific problems wherever they exist.”
Long before the Iraqi Study Group advocated a solution for Iraq that included negotiations with Iran and Syria, General Abizaid argued that combating Islamic extremism required a regional approach.
The Bush administration is split over the idea of a surge in troops to Iraq, with White House officials aggressively promoting the concept over the unanimous disagreement of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, according to U.S. officials familiar with the intense debate.
Sending 15,000 to 30,000 more troops for a mission of possibly six to eight months is one of the central proposals on the table of the White House policy review to reverse the steady deterioration in Iraq.
[...]
The chiefs have taken a firm stand, the sources say, because they believe the strategy review will be the most important decision on Iraq to be made since the March 2003 invasion.
At regular interagency meetings and in briefing President Bush last week, the Pentagon has warned that any short-term mission may only set up the United States for bigger problems when it ends. The service chiefs have warned that a short-term mission could give an enormous edge to virtually all the armed factions in Iraq
- including al-Qaeda’s foreign fighters, Sunni insurgents and Shiite militias -without giving an enduring boost to the U.S military mission or to the Iraqi army, the officials said.The Pentagon has cautioned that a modest surge could lead to more attacks by al-Qaeda, provide more targets for Sunni insurgents and fuel the jihadist appeal for more foreign fighters to flock to Iraq to attack U.S. troops, the officials said.
The informal but well-armed Shiite militias, the Joint Chiefs have also warned, may simply melt back into society during a U.S. surge and wait until the troops are withdrawn—then reemerge and retake the streets of Baghdad and other cities.
Even the announcement of a time frame and mission
- such as for six months to try to secure volatile Baghdad -could play to armed factions by allowing them to game out the new U.S. strategy, the chiefs have warned the White House.The idea of a much larger military deployment for a longer mission is virtually off the table, at least so far, mainly for logistics reasons, say officials familiar with the debate. Any deployment of 40,000 to 50,000 would force the Pentagon to redeploy troops who were scheduled to go home.
As JK concluded on the show:
But nothing is going to resolve Iraq without this fundamental political reconciliation. You have a divide between Sunni and Shia. And you have criminal elements. You have ex-Baathist elements. You’ve just got an enormous historical cultural problem. And the only way to overcome it is with major assistance from outside countries and from us to get that political resolution.
JK also highlighted one other crisis that merits immediate attention:
I think that—incidentally, if I can just say this to you, David, while everybody is focused on Iraq, there is a major crisis brewing that will have an impact on Iraq, on Israel and on the politics of the region in Lebanon. And Lebanon is an immediate crisis. It’s a two-week crisis, not a several-month crisis. And we think it is critical that there be greater focus.
Not up on your Lebanese politics?
Check out the New York Times and Washington Post special coverage on Lebanon.
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I appreciate your thread efforts so much, Violet, and how they lay out John Kerry’s words and wisdom, past and present, buttressed in comparison and agreement with others. His positions of 2004 as true then as now.
A much needed reality check and truth-telling.
Now, if we could only work on the business of this country, and the world, without worrying about the next election’s strategy. Thinking about it wrongly, and into inaction, I might add.
I watched the video of the Today Show and I was THRILLED to hear Senator Kerry speak about the reconciliation process that the Iraqis themselves have been working on.
I keep hearing about what WE have to do to win in Iraq. How about helping them to put their lives back together after we destroyed them?
Thank you Sen. Kerry for going to the ME and for listening to them so well. What you said this morning is what I have heard is necessary from Iraqi people in the peace movement.
As for the rest of the party: SANITY, PLEASE!!
So, so right, Karen. As if the White House, or the Democrats, can unilaterally wage peace, have a plan, as we did to wrongly make war.
We still don’t know what this administration wants to do, beyond stall for 2008, or stabilize the oil. What, exactly, does it still want to win?
The media needs an epiphany and press them for answers, for ownership of this huge mess.
I was truly impressed with JK on TTS this morning. It was good to see someone - anyone - with a good handle on what needs to start to happen in the ME. Like Karen said, it isn’t just about leaving Iraq, but leaving the whole region a better place than it is now.
John Kerry is the ONLY person offering a sane, intelligent solution to the Iraq mess. Simply throwing more troops at the problem is the most ignorant thing I have ever heard.
Haven’t we already learned that troops aren’t the answer to the problem? Isn’t it time we start holding the Iraq government responsible for their new government?
Incremental removal of our troops over a one year period is the ONLY solution, forcing the Iraq government to start taking charge, while simultaniously engaging nearby countries to offer support (already started by JK in Syria, something Pres Bush should be doing)
I particularly loved how Senator Kerry refused to be taken off message. You can tell that the MSM really wants to craft a narrative of “Kerry’s a weak candidate for President” and they want to get some negative reaction out of him, whether it be resentment or plain giving up. They’re also pushing for a nice vitriolic intra-party conflict—they tried to get him to say something bad about Obama a few weeks ago. I love how he’s refusing to rise to the bait and taking it right back to what *he* wants to talk about.
Excellent work, Senator. It’s so refreshing to see some of our elected officials with a proactive, diplomatic manner of addressing the crisis in the Middle East. While this administration sits on their duffs, “playing politics”, Senators Kerry and Dodd are actually addressing the concerns in that region head-on, with tact and proposed solutions.
I also applaud the Senator’s successful derailment of the attempt to turn the conversation to poll numbers, and more talk of 2008. He got back on task, and refused to be swayed from the work at hand.
I expected John to embrace the function and role of opposition leader after November, 2004 and haven’t been disappointed.
I am grateful he’s the kind of responsible adult who doesn’t squander his intelligence, integrity and ability to think creatively on lesser issues than the giants that face us today. And political reconciliation, in the Middle East, in Afghanistan, in America- is a big, big issue, for what is “political reconciliation” if not another term for basic human rights?
As I said many, many, many times on the previous Kerry blog, everyone gets a seat at the table. THANK YOU John Kerry for following, extending and vocalizing that basic courtsey and fundamental right in your attempts to untangle the knot that is the Middle East today. Reconciliation isn’t for sissies. There isn’t a doubt in my mind that Kerry isn’t up way past par up for that work. Bravo.
Here’s hoping (and working!) for the echo.
How is everybody able to streamline these videos? A new computer, loaded with flash, but still dial-up. Is that the difference?
With full attribution to the original source, at:
http://gefilte.blogspot.com/2006/10/george-bush-reads-george-bush-so.html
George Bush so enjoyed “The Pet Goat” that he has taken to reading, and writing children’s books. The following is his rendition of Dr. Seuss’s Green Eggs and Ham:
You do not like to tell the truth?
I do not like it Dr. Seuss
I do not like to tell the truth
I could not would not, in Iraq
I will not ever take it back
I will not with Korea’s bomb
I won’t admit that I was wrong
Not with Delay, Not with Foley
Nor Abramoff! You let me be!
We did not tell with Enron’s stocks
We don’t need to cause we have FOX
I will not tell with Diebold’s tricks
I will not tell with deficits
I will not tell cause things are fine
I will not tell it anytime!
I do not like to tell the truth
I do not like it, Dr. Seuss
I thought the Today show interview was good, but the NPR interview MUST be heard. Awesome, especially the last part.
Let’s hear Bush, Snow and Rice deny that the Congress is co-equal. Comeon, George. Say it. I dare ya.
If Bush doesn’t listen to what the Senators bring back and instead sends more of our kids to fight and die because of his stubbornness, he will have no excuses left and no defense. The American people have had enough, and if the administration won’t lead, thank God someone will.
Thanks, Senators Kerry and Dodd. You guys rock!
When the President and certain members of his Administration talk they use these terms that distance themselves from the real affects of this war. They talk about ‘doubling-down’ on the number of troops in Baghdad and make it sound as if the only problem the US faces is one of nerves. Must be nice to be able to gamble, especially when using someone’s else’s credit cards, and throw numbers around as though there aren’t real live human beings behind each and every one of them.
I don’t get that feeling when Sen. Kerry talks about this. I get the feeling that he knows that each second we waste with more useless talk about the process means real live people continue to be placed in harm’s way. We have to do something to move this process along quickly, the delays are, quite literally, killing people in Iraq. It’s almost as if I can hear a ‘tick tock’ sound when Kerry is speaking about this, a sound that tells me that he knows every delay is deadly and has consequences.
I wish the Bush Administration would look at Iraq like that. I wish I could detect the absolute need to get the parties to the negotiating table, before one more person dies, from the current Admin spokespeople. Sen. Kerry talks about the problem like this. I’m glad he does and I wish more people in DC would as well.
Hope this didn’t get missed today:
Top Shiite Cleric Is Said to Favor a Coalition for Iraq
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/20/world/middleeast/20sistani.html?_r=1&ref=world&oref=slogin
While not a sure thing, it’s something when the parties in place acknowledge a willingness to communicate.
I just listened to Sen. Kerry on NPR, and I was struck with the calmness in his voice, even as he described the looming crisis in the Middle East. He understands what the political problems are there, and that other countries in the region also think that they are POLITICAL problems to solve, not military. Finally, as I listened to Sen. Kerry tonight, I really thought he sounded like the president.
Somebody agreed on a dailykos thread today:
He’s so (expletive) smart! (5+ / 0-)
As time goes on, I realize more and more, how much I really like John Kerry. Will I be voting for him in the primary in the event that he decides to run??? I’m not sure yet… but boy would I feel safe if he were our President…
by Potus2020 on Wed Dec 20, 2006 at 02:39:48 PM
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/12/20/125158/50
I may add that Potus had a banner for a different candidate for ‘08. Yet, when he was hit with real world problems, he realized how qualified Sen. Kerry is.
Beachmom,
So many of us also find that calm reassuring, professional, and still being totally on top of the whatever issue, intellectually, emotionally and professionally.
Others mistake that steely determination and cool missing the hysteria to match their own.
Unfortunate that not more people understand that aspect of his leadership that is rare and to be valued.
And continuing kudos for your Kos leadership. I love your language, friendly yet firm, distilled and always understood. I can learn from you!
Posted by beachmom | December 20, 2006 9:37 PM
“I really thought he sounded like the president.”
In ‘03 at the Iowa JJ dinner, John Kerry said “we need to send them a President”, well we did.
You are so right, GV, about the NPR interview, in Kerry’s assertion of Congress’ importance, and the mandate of the last election.
Still sounding entirely cooperative and respectful with the administration. Far more than they have been with the Kerry, Congress, and the rest of us.
And, more importantly, we need them to send us one back.
Safe home, Senator. We’ll leave the light on for ya.
Amen, Otter.
Safe travels, Senator.
This is my first time posting here. I have been a huge fan of Senator Kerry since the early 70’s; and continue to respect Senator Kerry more than most any public official I have seen in my 50+ years of interest in politics. Senator McGovern would be one of the few others I hold in this high regard.)
I am feeling extremely distraught tonight after watching the Bush press conference earlier today, and digesting what he said and the consequences.
I love this country very much and feel we are in a disasterous situation and on the brink of further disaster from which we may not recover for decades.
I watched Scarbourough Country tonight on MSNBC. As many of you know, he is a conservative former Congressman, who supported the war, and supported Bush twice. He now feels Bush is totally isolated and dangerous. Mike Barnacle, who was a guest on the show said Bush is delusional and sending more troops into Iraq would border on criminal. He is dismissing any advice from military leaders with whom he disagrees. It’s a dangerous situation.
I’m not given to rash statements; but I trully believe impeachment must, absolutely must be on the table. If Bush is as isolated and delusional as he appears, he must be confronted. Baker and Hamilton tried and were pushed aside. Please Senator Kerry and anyone else with the guts; please take on Bush and try to prevent further damage to this country. Thank you.
Good comments about the futility of more troops.
We bloggers can influence public opinion with letters to the editor and reader-submitted articles such as these 2 that are among the top 5 on a newspaper’s website. One is about being fair to John Kerry. http://www.argusleader.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?Category=COMMUNITYPUB0111&articleID=36
The other is anti-Iraq war. http://www.argusleader.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?Category=COMMUNITYPUB0111&articleID=40
Kerry’s famous words about Vietnam in the Swiss press
From time to time I check online news in French and German to see if there is something interesting about John Kerry and I can tell you that the articles right now are very critical of Bush and always positive on Kerry. I won’t post them here because I can’t translate them all but I think one Swiss article is especially great because they used Kerry’s phrase “How do you ask a man…” to criticize Bush. They explain that Bush won’t listen to the ISG and instead wants to increase troop levels in Iraq because for him it’s an ideological war that demands more sacrifices.
http://www.letemps.ch/template/international.asp?page=4&article=196662
Reste que la partie n’est pas terminée, alors que les deux Chambres du Congrès seront aux mains des démocrates d’ici quelques jours, et que ces «sacrifices» réclamés par le président auront de lourdes conséquences financières. Reste surtout que, face à un retrait jugé, à terme, de plus en plus inévitable, il sera difficile d’envoyer davantage de GI se faire tuer en Irak. Comme le disait à propos de la guerre du Vietnam le sénateur John Kerry, le rival malheureux de Bush à la présidentielle: «Comment peut-on demander à un homme d’être le dernier à mourir pour une erreur?»
Translation:
It remains that the game is not over, although the two Chambers of Congress will be in the hands of the Democrats in a couple of days and the “sacrifices” demanded by the president will have grave financial consequences. And especially it remains that, faced with eventually withdrawal seen as more and more inevitable, it will be difficult to send more GIs to get killed in Iraq. As senator John Kerry, Bush’s unfortunate rival in the presidential election said about the Vietnam war: “How do you ask a man to be the last man to die for a mistake?”
Thank you, John Nelson, for your comments. I, too, have been a fan and admirer for decades, Kerry never disappoints; especially not in 04, when the challenges were harder than most admit.
Although impeachment may or may not be good politics for 08, it is deserved many times over. That side, as delusional and egomaniacal Bush seems, I think his manuevering is calculated with input from Cheney, the string-pullers, Rove, and others.
This is all about future positioning, cruel and wrong-headed.
Welcome, John Nelson. It’s good to see new posters who found this refuge. You express eloquently what so many of us feel; Time is running out in Iraq if it hasn’t already, and yet Bush is still unwilling to listen to advice that could save thousands of lives yet to be lost.
It is indeed frightening to have this man in office. Let us all hope that Senator Kerry and Senator Dodd can affect a much needed change of course.
Did anyone here see Former Ambassador Richard Holbrooke on O’Reilly tonight (I know…it was an accident) ? :) He mentioned Senator Kerry. Holbrooke and ‘Bill’ were discussing Iraq and troop levels. Holbrooke was essentially making Kerry’s points. After that, Holbrooke said that the Bush Administration owes an apology to John Kerry…that Kerry had been saying the truth all along (including during the 2004 election) and that HE HAD BEEN RIGHT. YAAAAAAY!!!!
Seriously, Yvonne? That’s amazing. I wonder if there’s video of that anywhere, I’d love to see it.
Bush should apologize. He can start by apologizing to Sen Kerry then keep apologizing for the next two years. It may take him that long to get through all the apologies he should issue to America and the rest of the world.
Of course, hell would freeze over first.
John Nelson, I saw Barnacle on Scarborough’s show. He was pretty great. I think he used ‘delusional’ several times to describe Mr Bush. I noticed Joe wasn’t arguing.
Senators Kerry and Dodd are in Israel today. I hope we hear more from them, it’s been too long since there’s been any news on the diplomatic front, and it just makes me feel hopeful again to hear it.
GV,
Really. It was GREAT! I checked the Fox website and a couple other places, but no hint of it anywhere. I’m on a mission. :) I’ll post a link if one becomes available.
Thanks very much for the NPR audio link. Sen. Kerry was excellent: not only authoritative and thoughtful, but, also, ahem, PRESIDENTIAL.
THIS is how it’s done. What is it about diplomacy that this administration just doesn’t get?
Abbas willing to meet Olmert: Erekat
Dec 21, 2006
Chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat said on Thursday that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is willing to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.
Erekat made remarks at a joint press conference with visiting U. S. Senator John Kerry, who is a Democrat presidential candidate in 2004.
http://english.people.com.cn/200612/22/eng20061222_334859.html