…Superdelegate!

On the tongues of Americans everywhere, the focus of endless pundit banter, the superdelegate is finally getting its moment in the sun. All hail the powerful superdelegate! The potential bulwark of the Clinton campaign, the denizens of the smoke-filled rooms of the 21st century, the ones who can subvert the will of the American people and turn democracy on its ear.

Well, let’s just hold on there. It’s really unlikely there will be any subverting going on here, and indoor clean air laws pretty much preclude smoke-filled rooms these days (we should probably call them Blackberry-filled rooms instead).

First, let’s take a look at the reality of superdelegates, who they are, how many, etc. All of the current federal officeholders of the Democratic Party (Senators and Representatives), plus former Presidents, Vice-Presidents, Speakers, Senate Majority Leaders, and various other electeds. There are also many people drawn from the membership of the DNC (folks you’ve almost surely never heard of), as well as 76 unpledged add-ons from the states (that are apportioned by the vote in that state).

Now, these superdelegates are free to vote however they choose. They can vote for the winner in their state, in their district, for the popular vote winner in the primaries, for the delegate winner in the primaries, for the one who shares their love of little-known red wines from Eastern Europe … anything.

Which, in this close election, has led to much kvetching online and off. The cable news shows LOVE this story, devoting hour after hour to it. It’s perfect for them: easy to book guests for, easy to understand on a surface level with arcane rules that can create endless discussion, and it doesn’t hurt that it makes Democrats seem disorganized and chaotic. That’s always a fun theme!

The truth, though, is that it’s very unlikely these superdelegates will sway the election. Over half of them are official uncommitted still, and the thought that they would all break toward the loser of the primary process strains credulity. Even the ones already committed aren’t set in stone. From today’s NYTimes:

Several Clinton superdelegates, whose votes could help decide the nomination, said Monday that they were wavering in the face of Mr. Obama’s momentum after victories in Washington State, Nebraska, Louisiana and Maine last weekend.

Some said that they, like the hundreds of uncommitted superdelegates still at stake, might ultimately “go with the flow,” in the words of one, and support the candidate who appears to show the most strength in the primaries to come.

And, remember, these are superdelegates already committed.

The truth is, these are not people who are interested in bucking the system. And the Clintons do not have a magic hold over the Democratic Party. Some like them, some don’t, just like any political situation. I don’t really think that the superdelegates will break one way strongly or the other, all things being equal.

But things probably won’t be equal. One campaign or the other will probably break away a bit and take a decent lead in delegates from the primaries and caucuses. And that campaign will get the majority of the superdelegates. And we’ll be all done.

Now, I suppose it’s possible things will be too close to have a clear victor, and that would be bad. Things never work well in our democracy in the case of extremely close elections (don’t even mention a certain citrus-producing state from 2000 … too painful). Then we’ll have huge fights over FL and MI, the superdelegates, etc, etc … but the chances of that are still too remote to spend much time worrying about it.

Right now, it’s all about the voters. Don’t listen to the hype; those will almost surely be the people who decide this, not superdelegates.