‘Shinseki was right’ and other thoughts on Iraq

This USA Today headline, “Shinseki was Right” caught our eye. It was grouped with the Honolulu Advertiser article, “Kaua’i-born general ‘was right’

Both articles focused on the exchange between Sen. Lindsay Graham® and General Abizaid in a Congressional hearing yesterday. The Honolulu Advertiser, which acknowledged the hometown link in the title, opened with:

WASHINGTON — The top U.S. commander in the Middle East and Central Asia told Congress yesterday that Gen. Eric Shinseki was correct when he predicted more troops were required to secure Iraq after Saddam Hussein was ousted from power.

In March 2003, before the invasion, the Kaua’i-born Shinseki estimated several hundreds of thousands of troops would be needed to occupy Iraq after Saddam’s fall.

Shinseki, who was chief of staff of the Army at the time, was criticized by many Pentagon officials, including Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and his deputy, Paul Wolfowitz. Shinseki’s figures were “wildly inaccurate,” Wolfowitz said. Shinseki retired from the Army three months later.

But yesterday, Army Gen. John Abizaid, chief of U.S. Central Command, said Shinseki was correct.

“General Shinseki was right that a greater international force contribution, U.S. force contribution and Iraqi force contribution should have been available immediately after major combat operations,” said Abizaid.

Looks like another case of acknowledgement after the fact that someone who knew what he was talking about was ignored and mocked by incompetents in the Bush administration.

But what really stood out for me was this thoughtful comment on the USA Today News blog. It provides a well-rounded, boots-on-the-ground, pragmatic assessment of what’s happening in Iraq by someone who has served in Iraq. <!-more->

Since the fall of 2003 I have deployed to Baghdad Iraq with the Army for a total of 26 months. Indeed – Shinseki was right, and so was Sec. of the Army White for backing him. The neo-cons were absolutely wrong headed about how to go about liberating Iraq from Saddam and then provide the right kind of environment for Democracy. Both detractors (not “cut and run” mind you, but “envelop and overwhelm” strategists) were relieved of duty. In my mind – this is where everyone learned to hold the administration’s neocon-line and the planning veered off into la-la land.

I am SUPREMELY happy that Rumsfield resigned. To his credit, he has been doing a lot of good, necessary things for the armed forces – but this was a fatal mistake. The Neo-conservatives were blinded by a faith that other cultures value Democracy, the lies and whisperings of Iraqi expatriots (Chalabi), and [by] a mirage of cheap oil in a peaceful middle east. They saw the costs as low and truly believed that other forces (Democracy / Iraqis / Coalitions) would do the work for us. They were absolutely deluded… [including] W.

VP Cheney said, “My belief is we will, in fact, be greeted as liberators.”—March 16, 2003

We were liberators… for 30 seconds until everyone in Iraq realized that no one was stopping them from looting, killing, stealing, kidnaping, pushing their own agendas, and assuming power at will. All that the general Iraqi citizen has looked for since that day is ANY authority figure – the US, Al Sadr, Sistani that can enforce the rule of law and a civilized society outside their front door.

So – what can we do now? I don’t feel qualified to assert that I know the answer. But I CAN guess. Especially in light of what some of you are writing on this BLOG. =^)

It’s too late to bring in more forces. The “several hundred thousand” that was proposed would only escalate the already high level of hate, anger, and in many cases surprise and disappointment in the futility of American intervention that the poor coverage and poor outcomes of this conflict have brought.

Moreover – the political environment at present won’t allow for a larger commitment. The reason that the commanders on the ground keep saying they don’t need more troops is because they have enough for the mission they have been given! Maintain secure forward operating bases (FOB’s), train the Iraqi Army and Police, do some patrols to take out pockets of insurgents and provide quick reactionary force (QRF) response teams to provide security after an attack.

You want to hear them scream for more troops? Change their MISSION to “Secure Iraq” and wait. I believe that all we can take away from this is YET ANOTHER lesson that you can’t fight a war with a half-assed military commitment and presence and then expect the US Armed forces to be a police force in a foreign land, with a foreign culture without having extinguished the enemy or having enforced stability or peace.

We have to leave. Iraqi’s have to swim – on their own – or sink. It’s a very complex part of the world, the cradle of civilization, and disagreements go back far beyond the Muslim Shiah/Suni rift which occurred in 900 A.D.

From what I have seen, heard, and know… there are three processes that will provide any type of stability in that region: a dictator, a religious civil war (which will never lead to a unified Iraq with “victory” for any one cleric, sect, race, or tribe), or a religiously affiliated, elected government with truly enforceable AUTHORITY that is perceived as REAL and POWERFUL by the citizens without a foreign presence. In any event – we have to devolve ourselves from the responsibilities that we have assumed.

As Larry McMurtry put it in Lonesome Dove – “Jake’s too leaky a vessel to put much faith in.” At this point – so is US foreign policy.

Posted by: Kyle Curtis | Nov 15, 2006 3:42:13 PM

Thanks Kyle for your service and for your clear-eyed analysis.

 

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Without even regarding the faulty premise for this war in the first place, the execution of it just goes to show that the naivete of this neo-con administration is astounding in its proportions.
There was never going to be a winning the peace. Not with barely enough troops to hold the lines, never mind bring order to assured chaos.
Liberators, indeed! There was nothing to liberate. Before Saddam, the country was as divided as it is now. Did Rumsfeld and cronies really think that the Iraqi people would thankfully fall in line and unite in love and peace after Hussein’s ouster?
Kyle Curtis got it right; There is nothing to salvage - not even our reputation. We need to cut our losses, swallow our pride, and keep more needless lives from being lost. We need to get out of Iraq as soon as possible.

Posted by Kerstin | 11/16/06, 07:07 AM EST

Tuesday, Feingold reintroduced the bill for a withdrawal of Iraq before July 07 (apparently identical to what Senator Kerry and Feingold introduced last summer), and an editorial on the issue.

http://www.tompaine.com/articles/2006/11/16/a_way_out_of_iraq.php

A Way Out Of Iraq
Sen. Russ Feingold
November 16, 2006

On Election Day, the American people weighed in at the ballot box: They want to get our troops out of Iraq. Voters rejected the president’s failed Iraq policy, putting Democrats in charge of Congress and responsible for setting a new direction for Iraq, and, most importantly, for our national security.

Democrats agree that we should begin redeploying troops, but some do not want to set a target deadline for the majority of troops to be withdrawn. That is a mistake. Without a target date, redeployment could drag on indefinitely. The president consistently refused to set a target date for withdrawal, and Democrats shouldn’t follow in his footsteps. Democrats should move forward with a new Iraq policy that includes a target date for the redeployment of U.S. troops so that we can refocus on defeating global terrorist networks.
...

A target date isn’t just critical to our Iraq policy, it is essential for our national security policy. We cannot adequately focus on the pressing national security challenges we face around the globe when so many of our brave troops are in Iraq, and so many billions of U.S. taxpayer dollars are being spent there. A timetable ensures that we can refocus our resources on fighting terrorist networks and on addressing trouble spots around the world that threaten our national security.
...

 

It is good to see a few good people will continue to fight for a real deadline.

Posted by FrenchGirlFromMA | 11/16/06, 07:42 AM EST

A Murtha victory would have been a shot in the arm for the advocates of immediate redeployment, but that didn’t happen. The spin flak was as intense as it was for Senator Kerry.

The Baker-Hamilton Report will prove to be a distraction, half-measures that will provide Bush with cover for months, unfortunately.

For the moment, the Dems have lost the momentum.

Posted by Peter Baldwin | 11/16/06, 09:08 AM EST

Kerry is the only one who mentions our responsibity to rebuild Iraq; if not personally then financially.
I am sure Dems will investigate Haliburton and Bechtel for starters and demand an accounting of the money given to them.
We still owe Iraq their country back and functioning like it was before we wrecked the place.

If we leave and don’t fix the place, it will be in worse shape then Dumbya’s dorm room after a frat party.

Posted by battlebob | 11/16/06, 09:18 AM EST

Veteran Kerry-basher Adam Nagourney tries to play the blame game with Kerry (as if the Democrats didn’t actually win last week). Response at Liberal Values:

http://liberalvaluesblog.com/?p=627

Posted by Ron Chusid | 11/16/06, 10:25 AM EST

Carol Shea-Porter, the subject of the previous thread header here on blog.johnkerry.com, continues to garner favorable press and political respect. As the Boston Globe reported yesterday:

WASHINGTON—The last time Carol Shea-Porter had been in the same room as President Bush, she said, her T-shirt’s message—“Turn your back on Bush”—won her a push out the door from a Bush supporter as she left an airplane hangar in Portsmouth.

When Shea-Porter saw Bush again Monday night at the White House, she shook his hand as the next House member from New Hampshire’s First District. The conversation was cordial, Shea-Porter said, but that doesn’t mean she’s forgotten the message of change that sent her to the nation’s capital.

“Our obligation is to take what we heard and to speak it loudly in Washington,” Shea-Porter, a Democrat, said yesterday in an interview in the courtyard of the Rayburn House Office Building, where she is undergoing orientation for newly elected members of Congress.

Shea-Porter is one of the very few people in the age of big-money campaigns who can watch “Mr. Smith Goes to Washington” and truly see herself. She’s of a political breed that many believed was extinct: the angry citizen who decides to run for Congress—and wins.

[snip]

Her victory will make her New Hampshire’s first female US representative—and the most liberal member of Congress the state has had in recent years. Now, Shea-Porter will have to turn her formidable campaign skills into running a congressional office. She’ll have to work with a Democratic establishment that includes many who didn’t know her name just a week ago.

Indeed, there are strict limits on what any individual member can do to move the grinding machinery of the House. As a freshman, Shea-Porter will get low priority in choosing her committee assignments, a factor likely to determine which issues she can help mold.

“I’m curious to see how she’ll do, because party politics is a lot of the job in Washington,” said Jim Craig , the state House Democratic leader whom Shea-Porter defeated in the primary. “She’s not beholden to anyone, and that’s good in a sense, but it might cause problems for her.”

[snip]

Now, as Shea-Porter prepares to begin the weekly commute to Washington, she realizes that she has to learn to channel her grass-roots energy into a very ossified political process. She has plenty of doubters, starting with Bradley, who in his concession speech seemed to be already girding for a rematch: “Sometimes the pendulum swings one way and then it swings back. We’ll look forward to when it swings back.”

Shea-Porter wants US troops out of Iraq within six months, a balanced budget, and universal healthcare provided through Medicare. She acknowledged that those goals will be difficult to achieve, but said she’s committed to working with members of both parties to at least make progress.

“It’s not a disgrace to miss the goal as long as you’re working on it. What’s disgraceful is not to even start,” she said. “People voted for change, they voted for an agenda—and you can hear it—but they also voted for civility.”

Democrats are beginning to learn Shea-Porter’s name. The morning after the election, the DCCC called with its first offer of financial support.

“They asked us if we wanted them to pay our debt, and we told them we didn’t have any,” Shea-Porter said. “But it was nice of them to offer.”

 

plenty of class plus roots of grass,

Posted by Otter | 11/16/06, 10:35 AM EST

The US Needs Military Leaders Who Will Make Waves

A lightly different perspective about the failure in Iraq.

The military higher command has failed also.

http://www.counterpunch.org/macgregor11162006.html
(beneath the financial pitch)

Posted by battlebob | 11/16/06, 10:45 AM EST

the question now is shall we withdraw and face the humiliation of bringing a civil war into another country.  or shall we try to make these people live in peace, although that would probably takes many many years if not decade.

i think the army should withdraw now, get international support and offer financial support to help the poor and let put the internationl pressure for them to work it out.

Posted by Kevin SCStorage | 11/16/06, 11:55 PM EST

Watching all of the democratic election victories and wondering how John Kerry doing.  While I don’t think he should go on any frenzy talk shows and magazines it would be neat if he addressed his supporters and the troops so they can keep the faith.  Right now the perception to me is that he is being let down by the democratic party.  I honestly believed that they would embrace him after the elections and thank him for all the campaigning he did and for showing leadership on how to address the challenges of the Iraq war and region and   they should admit this “botched joke” was turned into a smear against JK that the party should denounce.  It just reminds me why I don’t like politics.

I was a republican for over 15 years because I didn’t think it really matter if I was a republican or democrat until 2003 when John Kerry was running for President.  John Kerry made me realize that there was an important difference and how some of us had become complacent.  I was always looking for the middle ground but didn’t realize just how much the ground was caving in under our feet.  I felt we had chance with JK to keep our Country moving forward and to keep us a Country of equal opportunity,  address health care needs, and hope for a progressive energy policy and for education and economic policies were we could actually compete in the world, and have a national security policy that made sense.  (It seems we keep going backwards with past administration players   advising/joining the present administration. Aren’t any new bright minds in the field of foreign policy out there?) 

I know people felt the mid term elections was an important election. I don’t think that this election meant the democratic party should be more conservative, I think people woke up on how necessary it is to be progressive so we can be competitive in the world. - maybe in varying degrees,  but people voted democratic for a change and less and less people want to go back to the “good old days“. 

Many regret they didn’t vote or didn’t vote for JK in the 2004 election, and finally are realizing the distortions.  And many felt this smear against JK was another ploy to fool citizens against voting democratic.  John Kerry should continue to press both the republicans and democrats into realizing that politics as usual won’t do,  the smear politics has to stop and that status quo or complacency won’t do.  There are too many challenges facing our Country. The democrats need John Kerry’s courage to speak truth to power and his commitment to moving us forward so we remain a great Country.

Posted by Jean | 11/17/06, 02:15 AM EST

Jean:

I so agree with everything you said - especially ” The democrats need John Kerry’s courage to speak truth to power and his commitment to moving us forward so we remain a great Country . ”  It is disgraceful how many Democrats have treated him since the election. (Governor Dean being a notable exception.) Like you, I hope that Senator Kerry continues to be a voice of sanity on Iraq and national security.

From the exit polls, it seems the two main issues that people were concerned about were Iraq and corruption. There is no one in either party who can better speak to both of these issues. On Iraq, people who consider themselves Democrats are closer to Senator Kerry’s position than to the Democratic leaders supposedly shunning him.

As to corruption, no one has as solid a record as Senator Kerry. He stood totally alone in the Senate when he pursued his investigation of BCCI, a corrupt bank that was facilitating drug running and helping terrorists. In addition to being Osama Bin Laden’s bank, they funded the development of Pakistan’s nuclear bomb. Yet, other Senators wanted to protect Democratic moneymen who were connected to BCCI. He also was called a conspiracy nut for pursuing a serious investigation into the Reagan administration’s illegal funding of the Contras.

Senator Kerry also wrote legislation called the Clean Election Act that was real campaign finance reform. Kerry has never taken PAC money and has been a very clean politician over a very long career.

Senator McCain is likely to try to run as a maverick reformer. In reality McCain is neither - and Senator Kerry is both. It may be the lack of support from party leaders will enable Senator Kerry to be seen as the old fashioned,  uncorruptible voice of integrity he is.  This is in distinct contrast to many of the people who are kicking him when he is down.

Posted by Karynnj | 11/17/06, 04:03 AM EST

Oh, for crying out loud—Bush making a total fool of himself in Vietnam.  This diary pretty much says it all:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/11/17/32736/774

What’s he trying to do—start another war that he didn’t bother to fight in the first time?


If there’s a video of this, this needs to be played over and over again, showing how gaffe prone this president is.  He’s in need of some remedial diplomacy training, too.

Posted by beachmom | 11/17/06, 05:12 AM EST

Beachmom,
Your are correct.  I can’t beleive it either.
He visits a country right after we sunk his trade agreement and essentialy tells them we could have beaten you if we just killed more of you.
By the way…all those mines we left…treat ‘em as easter eggs.
The deformed and diseased from Agent Orange?  Too bad… just a few gene changes after all.

Posted by battlebob | 11/17/06, 07:09 AM EST

Pay attention, people: this is how they do it.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/17/us/politics/17thinktank.html

And we have to be bleeping idiots not to sit there, take notes, and learn how to do it, too.

I mean, how many effective progressive public policy think tanks can *you* come up with for a list?

Right. That’s what I thought.

National and especially state-level policy think tanks are incredibly powerful tools.

Their side has got a whole steamer trunk packed chock full of those tools, with more coming every day.

And if we’re going to move our progressive agenda any further along than it is right now, then we need to have some of those tools in our toolboxes too.

Hmm, maybe with the assistance of a certain senator from Massachusetts we could see that start to happen for our side in the near future, too.

So, then—anybody out there ready to start school yet?


because we’re all tool-using creatures,
Otter

Posted by Otter | 11/17/06, 07:48 AM EST

Here is the embarrassing episode on video:

In Vietnam, Bush Repeats Kissinger Line: ‘We’ll Succeed Unless We Quit’

http://thinkprogress.org/2006/11/17/bush-kissinger-vietnam/

Posted by ProSense | 11/17/06, 07:55 AM EST

Bush did everything but say that if he were president instead of an army deserter 35 years ago we would have won.

We shouldn’t get upset, though, because Bush is the gift that keeps on giving. Two more years of the boy wonder should produce a propitious sequel to last Tuesdays’ win. The republicans are stuck with their “What? Me worry? poster child and a lot of them will ride on his coattails out of office and into oblivion.

James Inhofe, however, did top Bush today in the “stupid department”, saying global warming was “due to the sun”. http://thinkprogress.org/2006/11/17/inhofe-hoax/

Posted by Peter Baldwin | 11/17/06, 01:46 PM EST

Depravity:

(November 17, 2006—07:50 PM EDT)


FORMER ATTORNEY GENERAL Ed Meese is interviewed in the latest issue of GQ—and not for his sartorial splendor. This is as depressing a statement on American liberty and justice as anything I have read these last six years.

Here are some highlights from the Q&A:

<blockquote> Let’s move to the Geneva Conventions. A lot of people are concerned that terrorism suspects don’t have any kind of habeas corpus. In order to be covered by the Geneva Convention, you have to fulfill certain requirements. . . . So there are a number of criteria in the Geneva Convention that are not met by everyone on the battlefield. Then there’s another category of people going back to the Revolutionary War—people who were in those days called spies. If they were not in uniform, they were subject to being summarily executed.

  You mean they were executed without even a military tribunal?
  I think there were some. Also, a “tribunal” could be a military commander ordering the hanging. I think that’s what happened to some of them.

  You’re advocating summary execution.
  Well, yeah, that happens in the military. Illegal combatants are not entitled to the protections of the Geneva Conventions.

-snip-

Meese is not a has-been from the Reagan years. He has been a key advisor to the current White House on the nominations and confirmations of Supreme Court Justices John Roberts and Samuel Alito. This is a man who is widely considered to be at the pinnacle of the powerful conservative legal movement. This is what we have come to.

Update: Meese is also a member of the Baker/Hamilton Iraq Study Group, readers have reminded me.</blockquote>

Posted by ProSense | 11/17/06, 05:16 PM EST
Posted by ProSense | 11/17/06, 05:26 PM EST