Massachusetts had better be prepared to pump tens of millions of dollars into fuel-assistance programs this winter or people will “literally freeze to death” due to high home-heating oil prices, a key state senator warned yesterday.

The Senate’s Post Audit and Oversight Committee released a report yesterday that warned of home-heating oil prices hovering in the $4.50-per-gallon range next winter - or $1 per gallon more than prices this past winter.

The fear is that some low-income residents and elderly people on fixed incomes might not be able to afford those prices - and will simply go without heat during the cold season, the report said.

“People could literally freeze to death,” said Sen. Marc Pacheco (D-Taunton), chairman of the Senate committee. “It’s a looming crisis.”

The committee’s report paints a devastating picture for Bay State families who could face an 80 percent rise in their heating oil bills this winter while President Bush backs a 22 percent decrease in federal fuel assistance.

Last winter, $139 million in state and federal funds were dispersed to 140,000 poor families statewide, the report states. That included $15 million of state money written into a supplemental budget. There is no line item in the state budget for fuel assistance.

John Wells, vice president of emergency services at Action for Boston Community Development, estimates that it will cost $200 million to provide the same level of service this winter.

“People’s lives will be shortened,” said Wells.

Energy experts have been stunned by the rise of heating oil prices this spring, when the cost of the fuel usually drops due to lower seasonal demand. The problem: crude oil prices have continued to set record after record on the wholesale world markets.

“I’ve never seen in 30 years anything like this,” said Joe Kennedy, president of Citizens Energy, a fuel-assistance nonprofit program.

The Herald reported Sunday that some Bay State families could pay as much as $7,000 to heat their homes with oil. Wells said yesterday that the Bay State will have only $81 million on hand for fuel assistance in November.

The outlook for federal fuel assistance funds is so grim that U.S. Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) yesterday fired off a letter to the chief executives at Exxon Mobil Corp., BP, Shell Oil Co., Chevron Corp. and ConocoPhillips to ask them to give poor families a break on their bills.

“Tuesday’s report only further highlights the critical need for the Bush administration, Congress and private companies to step up to the plate and help the thousands of Massachusetts families who are at risk for having to choose between putting food on their tables or heating their homes,” Kerry said in a statement. “No one should go cold this winter because Washington failed to take action.”